Spatial-Explicit Modeling of Social Vulnerability to Malaria in East Africa.

Despite efforts in eradication and control, malaria remains a global challenge, particularly affecting vulnerable groups. Despite the recession in malaria cases, previously malaria free areas are increasingly confronted with epidemics as a result of changing environmental and socioeconomic conditions. Next to modeling transmission intensities and probabilities, integrated spatial methods targeting the complex interplay of factors that contribute to social vulnerability are required to effectively reduce malaria burden. We propose an integrative method for mapping relative levels of social vulnerability in a spatially explicit manner to support the identification of intervention measures. Based on a literature review, a holistic risk and vulnerability framework has been developed to guide the assessment of social vulnerability to water-related vector-borne diseases (VBDs) in the context of changing environmental and societal conditions. Building on the framework, this paper applies spatially explicit modeling for delineating homogeneous regions of social vulnerability to malaria in eastern Africa, while taking into account expert knowledge for weighting the single vulnerability indicators. To assess the influence of the selected indicators on the final index a local sensitivity analysis is carried out. Results indicate that high levels of malaria vulnerability are concentrated in the highlands, where immunity within the population is currently low. Additionally, regions with a lack of access to education and health services aggravate vulnerability. Lower values can be found in regions with relatively low poverty, low population pressure, low conflict density and reduced contributions from the biological susceptibility domain. Overall, the factors characterizing vulnerability vary spatially in the region. The vulnerability index reveals a high level of robustness in regard to the final choice of input datasets, with the exception of the immunity indicator which has a marked impact on the composite vulnerability index. We introduce a conceptual framework for modeling risk and vulnerability to VBDs. Drawing on the framework we modeled social vulnerability to malaria in the context of global change using a spatially explicit approach. The results provide decision makers with place-specific options for targeting interventions that aim at reducing the burden of the disease amongst the different vulnerable population groups

Global patterns of disaster and climate risk — an analysis of the consistency of leading index-based assessments and their results

Indices assessing country-level climate and disaster risk at the global scale have experienced a steep rise in popularity both in science and international climate policy. A number of widely cited products have been developed and published over the recent years, argued to contribute critical knowledge for prioritizing action and funding. However, it remains unclear how their results compare, and how consistent their findings are on country-level risk, exposure, vulnerability and lack of coping, as well as adaptive capacity. This paper analyses and compares the design, data, and results of four of the leading global climate and disaster risk indices: The World Risk Index, the INFORM Risk Index, ND-GAIN Index, and the Climate Risk Index. Our analysis clearly shows that there is considerable degree of cross-index variation regarding countries’ risk levels and comparative ranks. At the same time, there is above-average agreement for high-risk countries. In terms of risk sub-components, there is surprisingly little agreement in the results on hazard exposure, while strong inter-index correlations can be observed when ranking countries according to their socio-economic vulnerability and lack of coping as well as adaptive capacity. Vulnerability and capacity hotspots can hence be identified more robustly than risk and exposure hotspots. Our findings speak both to the potential as well as limitations of index-based approaches. They show that a solid understanding of index-based assessment tools, and their conceptual and methodological underpinnings, is necessary to navigate them properly and interpret as well as use their results in triangulation

Vulnerability and risk of deltaic social-ecological systems exposed to multiple hazards

Coastal river deltas are hotspots of global change impacts. Sustainable delta futures are increasingly threatened due to rising hazard exposure combined with high vulnerabilities of deltaic social-ecological systems. While the need for integrated multi-hazard approaches has been clearly articulated, studies on vulnerability and risk in deltas either focus on local case studies or single hazards and do not apply a social-ecological systems perspective. As a result, vulnerabilities and risks in areas with strong social and ecological coupling, such as coastal deltas, are not fully understood and the identification of risk reduction and adaptation strategies are often based on incomplete assumptions. To overcome these limitations, we propose an innovative modular indicator library-based approach for the assessment of multi-hazard risk of social-ecological systems across and within coastal deltas globally, and apply it to the Amazon, Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna (GBM), and Mekong deltas. Results show that multi-hazard risk is highest in the GBM delta and lowest in the Amazon delta. The analysis reveals major differences between social and environmental vulnerability across the three deltas, notably in the Mekong and the GBM deltas where environmental vulnerability is significantly higher than social vulnerability. Hotspots and drivers of risk vary spatially, thus calling for spatially targeted risk reduction and adaptation strategies within the deltas. Ecosystems have been identified as both an important element at risk as well as an entry point for risk reduction and adaptation strategies

Environmental change and Rift Valley fever in eastern Africa: projecting beyond HEALTHY FUTURES

Outbreaks of Rift Valley fever (RVF), a relatively recently emerged zoonosis endemic to large parts of sub-Saharan Africa that has the potential to spread beyond the continent, have profound health and socio-economic impacts, particularly in communities where resilience is already low. Here output from a new, dynamic disease model [the Liverpool RVF (LRVF) model], driven by downscaled, bias-corrected climate change data from an ensemble of global circulation models from the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project run according to two radiative forcing scenarios [representative concentration pathway (RCP)4.5 and RCP8.5], is combined with results of a spatial assessment of social vulnerability to the disease in eastern Africa. The combined approach allowed for analyses of spatial and temporal variations in the risk of RVF to the end of the current century. Results for both scenarios highlight the high-risk of future RVF outbreaks, including in parts of eastern Africa to date unaffected by the disease. The results also highlight the risk of spread from/to countries adjacent to the study area, and possibly farther afield, and the value of considering the geography of future projections of disease risk. Based on the results, there is a clear need to remain vigilant and to invest not only in surveillance and early warning systems, but also in addressing the socio-economic factors that underpin social vulnerability in order to mitigate, effectively, future impacts

Multiscale evaluation of an urban deprivation index : implications for quality of life and healthcare accessibility planning

Deprivation indices are widely used to identify areas characterized by above average social and/or material disadvantages. Especially spatial approaches have become increasingly popular since they enable decision makers to identify priority areas and to allocate their resources accordingly. An array of methods and spatial reporting units have been used to analyze and report deprivation in previous studies. However, a comparative analysis and assessment of the implications of the choice of the reporting unit for quality of life and health care accessibility planning is still missing. Based on a set of ten socioeconomic and health-related indicators, we constructed a weighted deprivation index for the urban area of Quito, Ecuador, using four different reporting units, including census blocks, census tracts, and two units based on the automatic zoning procedure (AZP). Spatial statistics and metrics are used to compare the resulting units, and a participatory expert-based approach is applied to evaluate their suitability for decision making processes. Besides structural differences regarding their size and shape, no strongly marked statistical or qualitative differences were found in the four analyzed spatial representations of deprivation. The four representations revealed similar spatial patterns of deprivation, with higher levels of deprivation in the peripheries of the city, especially in the southern and north-western parts. The study also suggests that census blocks, due to their fine spatial resolution, were considered most useful for quality of life and health care accessibility planning by local stakeholders.DK W 1237-N23(VLID)231661

Comparing index-based vulnerability assessments in the Mississippi Delta: Implications of contrasting theories, indicators, and aggregation methodologies

There are many index-based approaches for assessing vulnerability to socio-natural hazards with differences in underlying theory, indicator selection and aggregation methodology. Spatially explicit output scores depend on these characteristics and contrasting approaches can therefore lead to very different policy implications. These discrepancies call for more critical reflection on index design and utility, a discussion that has not kept pace with the impetus for vulnerability assessments and respective index creation and application following the Hyogo Framework for Action 2005–2015. Comparing index outputs is an effective approach in this regard. Here, the Social Vulnerability Index (SoVI®) and the vulnerability component of the Global Delta Risk Index (GDRI) are applied at census tract level in the Mississippi Delta and visually and quantitatively compared. While the SoVI® is grounded in the hazard/risk research paradigm with primarily socio-economic indicators and an inductive principal component methodology, the GDRI incorporates advancements from sustainability science with ecosystem-based indicators and a modular hierarchical design. Maps, class rank changes, and correlations are used to assess the convergence and divergence of these indexes across the delta. Results show that while very different theoretical frameworks influence scores through indicator selection, methodology of index calculation has an even greater effect on output. Within aggregative methodology, the treatment of inter-indicator correlation is decisive. Implications include the need for an increased focus on index methodology and validation of results, transparency, and critical reflection regarding assessment limitations, as our results imply that contradictory risk reduction policies could be considered depending on the assessment methodology used

Drought vulnerability and risk assessments: state of the art, persistent gaps, and research agenda

Reducing the social, environmental, and economic impacts of droughts and identifying pathways towards drought resilient societies remains a global priority. A common understanding of the drivers of drought risk and ways in which drought impacts materialize is crucial for improved assessments and for the identification and (spatial) planning of targeted drought risk reduction and adaptation options. Over the past two decades, we have witnessed an increase in drought risk assessments across spatial and temporal scales drawing on a multitude of conceptual foundations and methodological approaches. Recognizing the diversity of approaches in science and practice as well as the associated opportunities and challenges, we present the outcomes of a systematic literature review of the state of the art of people-centered drought vulnerability and risk conceptualization and assessments, and identify persisting gaps. Our analysis shows that, of the reviewed assessments, (i) more than 60% do not explicitly specify the type of drought hazard that is addressed, (ii) 42% do not provide a clear definition of drought risk, (iii) 62% apply static, index-based approaches, (iv) 57% of the indicator-based assessments do not specify their weighting methods, (v) only 11% conduct any form of validation, (vi) only ten percent develop future scenarios of drought risk, and (vii) only about 40% of the assessments establish a direct link to drought risk reduction or adaptation strategies, i.e. consider solutions. We discuss the challenges associated with these findings for both assessment and identification of drought risk reduction measures and identify research needs to inform future research and policy agendas in order to advance the understanding of drought risk and support pathways towards more drought resilient societies

International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction / Spatial assessment of social vulnerability in the context of landmines and explosive remnants of war in Battambang province, Cambodia

Despite recent progress in reducing the number of victims, landmines and explosive remnants of war (ERW) cause more than 3000 causalities every year, particularly affecting the most vulnerable. Current mine action programmes, however, do not consider prevailing vulnerabilities of affected communities in their priority-setting systems. We emphasise the need to consider social vulnerability in the workflow of mine action, and apply a spatially explicit approach for its assessment at a sub-national scale in Cambodia, one of the world's most heavily affected countries. Drawing on available literature and focus group discussions with domain experts, 16 socioeconomic, demographic and distance-related vulnerability indicators were identified. The Analytical Hierarchy Process was used to obtain indicator weights, revealing that using firewood for cooking, distance to hospitals and health centres, occupation in the primary sector, poverty, conflict density, illiteracy and living in a rural area are key factors shaping social vulnerability in the context of landmines and ERW. Results were visualised using both 22 km2 grids and sub-district administrative units, a resolution often used by the Cambodian Mine Action and Victim Assistance Authority (CMAA). The results show that social vulnerability is very heterogeneous across the study area (Battambang province) with varying contributions of the underlying indicators. Significant hot spots were identified in the central, north-western, north-eastern, and southern parts of the province. The presented approach provides the means not only to assess but also monitor progress of reconstruction measures to strengthen the resilience of communities exposed to post-conflict impacts such as landmines.(VLID)231723

Assessing multi-hazard vulnerability and dynamic coastal flood risk in the Mississippi Delta: The Global Delta Risk Index as a social-ecological systems approach

The tight coupling of the social-ecological system (SES) of the Mississippi Delta calls for balanced natural hazard vulnerability and risk assessments. Most existing assessments have approached these components in isolation. To address this, we apply the Global Delta Risk Index (GDRI) in the Mississippi Delta at high-resolution census tract level. We assess SES spatial patterns of drought, hurricane-force wind, and coastal flood vulnerability and integrate hazard and exposure data for the assessment of coastal flood risk. Moreover, we compare current coastal flood risk to future risk in 2025 based on the modelled effects of flood depth, exposure, and changes in ecosystem area in the context of ongoing efforts under the 2017 Louisiana Coastal Master Plan. Results show that the Master Plan will lead to decreases in risk scores by 2025, but the tracts that are currently the most vulnerable benefit less from risk reduction efforts. Along with our index output, we discuss the need for further advancements in SES methodology and the potential for catastrophic hazard events beyond the model parameters, such as extreme rainfall events and very strong hurricanes. Assessing SES risk components can lead to more targeted policy recommendations, demonstrated by the need for Master Plan projects to consider their unequal spatial effects on vulnerability and risk reduction